The $35 Billion Storm

"Just when we are about to get 'ocean front' property you want us to sell?!"

That's my father, responding to an e-mail I sent him today suggesting he sell his house on a barrier beach in Eastern Long Island. (We're on the canal side of the barrier island, thus the dark humor.) The story that prompted my e-mail suggests that 2006 may hold a greater than normal chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast.

I'm a solid-earth geoscientist, so I don't have too much perspective on how reliable the prediction is for increased probability of a 1938-like hurricane. I can say that Long Island's congressman, Rep. Tim Bishop, was more concerned about everyday beach erosion than full-scale hurricane disaster when I met with him this summer. Perhaps hurricanes are more on the minds of Long Island politicians (and residents) since Katrina?

Judging by the damages in Eastern Long Island from the 1938 hurricane, I hope people are paying attention. Total damages in Long Island and New England from the 1938 hurricane were $6 billion in today's dollars. If the same hurricane were to pass through the area today, damages would be about $35 billion. That's a big number.