The $100 Billion Earthquake

"Holy shit. The enormity of the risk in the Bay Area hadn't really hit me until reading that scenario in the Chronicle. And that's coming from someone who studies earthquakes and seismology daily...I think I'm officially over my instinct as an earth scientist (and recent New Jersey transplant) to think it's really cool to live in an active earthquake region. 'Create earthquake preparedness kit' has just moved up from its long lingering position at the bottom of my to do list."

That's me, in a comment on Kevin Vranes' blog. The article that prompted my realization is here. It's a narrative of what will happen in the Bay Area when the next 1906-size earthquake occurs. Read it.

Awesome USGS simulation of the 1906 earthquake here.

Report on the ~$100 billion damage estimate for a repeat of 1906 event here (pdf). Note, this is likely a serious underestimate of the actual damage when "The Big One" happens. Key quote:

"Despite improvements in building codes and construction practices, the growth of the region over the past hundred years causes the range of estimated fatalities, approximately 800 to 3,400 depending on time of day and other variables, to be comparable to what it was in 1906. The forecast property loss to buildings for a repeat of the 1906 earthquake is in the range of approximately $90 to $120 billion; 7,000 to 10,000 commercial buildings in the region are estimated to be closed due to serious damage; and about 160,000 to 250,000 households calculated to be displaced from damaged residences. Losses due to fire following earthquake, as well as losses to utility and transportation systems, would be in addition to these estimates."

Emphasis mine. Check out my previous post on East Coast hazards here.